When Chinese Democracy will out what review you prefer to read?

[Falcon]

whats the magic number for album sales that all you experts will deem a commercial success? im just curious

Very tough question.

Business wise, I'd say one album for every corresponding dollar put into production over a a selling period of 1 year. ?Although, if the rumored number of millions (12?, 13?) is correct, that's beyond unrealistic.

In the publics opinion, who knows? ?Some sort of time period has to be attached to any "commercial success" conversation...

[jgfnsr]

Very tough question.

Business wise, I'd say one album for every corresponding dollar put into production over a a selling period of 1 year. ?Although, if the rumored number of millions (12?, 13?) is correct, that's beyond unrealistic.

In the publics opinion, who knows? ?Some sort of time period has to be attached to any "commercial success" conversation...

So, going by your estimations above, you're saying Chinese Democracy will basically have to sell like Appetite for Destruction for it to be "commercially successful?"

For the record, that's pretty much how I've always thought it would have to be.

[Naupis]

Wrong. The company has given GNr a lot of money to produce music. Supposedly they have 3 albums worth of material. Lets say Cd "fails commercially" the company and the band will still atleast put out another album. The company wants to recoup their investment. The only way to do that is to sell records or Axl give them the money instead of music.

Its safe to say that no matter what, we will be getting 2 new gnr albums...you can take that to the bank...

and as long as they are artistically great ill be one happy camper...ill let you handle the numbers

Under the best of circumstances Axl is temperamental. If his album doesn't do well, and is universally panned by critics and the public he is going to hang them up. The record company can release as many albums as they want of GNR material, that will be it for Axl. He has proven he can live without being in the spotlight, and would have no problem walking away.

There is no way if this album doesn't do well that he is going to suck it up, admit maybe his vision was wrong, and start again. If he isn't accepted out of the gate that's it. You are entitled to believe otherwise, but the guy is fragile. Fear of failure IMO has kept this project from getting started so far, so what makes you believe that if he releases an album he truly believes is the best thing he has ever created and it isn't recieved well and critics throw him under a bus makes you think he is going to dust himself off and try again? I just don't see it happening.

This all leads me to this whole thing about recording 10 billion albums before you release 1. If hypothetically that 1 album doesn't go over well, there is a good chance you have to go back and start from scratch. That will have made the entire last 6 years of waiting and recording worthless, as he would have to start over. This I truly believe will be the greatest miscalculation of the project. It is like putting the cart before the horse.

I look at the VR guys and think GNR is in a very similar situation. They were a new act, had to learn to play together and stuff, release an album and see how it goes. For their next album I totally believe it will be much better than CB as you hear from every member to a man the different perspective and closeness you get from being on the road together as a band for over a year and playing together. You can't replicate that growth as a band in a studio. Had they recorded the follow-up to CB before they released the first album, it most likely would sound just like CB and not show the truth growth of the band as a band.

GNR will sadly be devoid of that and I think it creatively is going to end up cheating the process. Had they just worried about getting one done and got it out, toured a bit and recorded again, I have no doubt that album would sound a whole lot different than whatever follow up we will get if we actually ever get one. Being on the road makes a band grow together both personally and musically, which is precisely the reason a debut band has never ever ever recorded their follow up album before they ever released their debut. We laugh about how things have never really been done like this, but for something like recording all follow ups before the public even hears your debut offering, there is a reason for it. If he really didn't want to leave the road after releasing his album that bad (which is always the excuse bantied about by those who defend the 3 album stuff) then he could write while on the road and record demo's at soundchecks and stuff like VR is. That way when you get in the studio you don't have to take 2 years to make an album, you do stuff bit by bit as the inspiration comes.

So that was a bit off the subject, but no way if the album fails will he scrap his project and start over. He will take it personally that it didn't do well, and will just hang it up musically as I don't see him trying to write another album that he again wouldn't even be sure if it would be successful.



Commercial success to me is minimum 4-5 million albums in the states, 10 million world wide. For a project that has as much time and energy put into it as this does, anything short of that is a failure given people like evanescense were able to sell over 3 million albums on what I'm sure was a couple hundred thousand dollar budget, then GNR should be selling at least 4-5 mil given the anticipation and resources that went into this project. There is just no excuse for it to not do that well other than people just not liking it. GNR as a band name has sold like 30 some-odd million albums in the states as a brand, getting 4-5 million in sales would mean getting even only 20% of those who own at least 1 gnr album to buy CD. If they can't do that they are finished in terms of their place in today's rock world.

[*Izzy*]

CD will never do as well as Appetite or any old records because nowadays there are MP3s and re-writable cds and I generaly don't think people buy records cds that much nowadays?

  Izzy?

[Falcon]

Very tough question.

Business wise, I'd say one album for every corresponding dollar put into production over a a selling period of 1 year. ?Although, if the rumored number of millions (12?, 13?) is correct, that's beyond unrealistic.

In the publics opinion, who knows? ?Some sort of time period has to be attached to any "commercial success" conversation...

So, going by your estimations above, you're saying Chinese Democracy will basically have to sell like Appetite for Destruction for it to be "commercially successful?"

More from a label/business standpoint. yes.

From a public perspective, I think it has to open and stay at #1 for multiple weeks, stay in the top quarter of the charts for at least a year, produce multiple chart topping Billboard Mainstream Rock singles and at least 2 crossover singles that hit the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100.

However many albums sold the above scenario generates over a period of a year would give my answer for a perceived "commercial success".

[Dust N Rose]

Not the bad reviews. I'm excluding the gn'r haters. Many reviews seem to stick to the bad parts of an album. Is that bad? Sometimes it's like they remind you the bad spots of a work. (bad spots that you may never had think about them). I don't want reminders.

So, we don't read any reviews? I believe not(in the beggining). First, we have to listen to the album (not only once) and then go to check other people's opinions.
Reviews are for the dubious. I don't believe that there's at least one person here in this forum that will wait another person's opinion about C.D. to decide if he's going to buy it.

[younggunner]

You are entitled to believe otherwise, but the guy is fragile. Fear of failure IMO has kept this project from getting started so far, so what makes you believe that if he releases an album he truly believes is the best thing he has ever created and it isn't recieved well and critics throw him under a bus makes you think he is going to dust himself off and try again? I just don't see it happening.

I think the opposite. Far from fragile. Fragile would be not following what you dont think is right. Hes doing what he wants and how he wants. Far from fragile in my book.

I look at the VR guys and think GNR is in a very similar situation. They were a new act, had to learn to play together and stuff, release an album and see how it goes.

Thats what you fail to realize with GNR. You think as soon as they were a band they began making material for an album. What yoiu dont know or fail to reconize are the zillion times they just jammed together in the studio. Especially early on with this band.
You think the whole delay thing is due to making perfect material. Thats is partly the reason but you have to realize before that Axl wanted to make sure it was the right band chemistry wise.
So while Vr have decided to grow in the spotlight GNr have grown in the wee hours of the night when nobody has been watching or paying any attention. Its the same thing.
The 2002 tour was for the band to get out of the studio and gel in a live fashion.

I think it creatively is going to end up cheating the process.

I highly doubt their will be any creative problems in regards to guns music. In fact it might be too creative for your likings...

I have no doubt that album would sound a whole lot different than whatever follow up we will get if we actually ever get one.

but Axl has a different game plan than VR. Your comparing band with 2 different goals and responsibilities.

Its quite obivious if you ask me. Axl took on the name so now he has to live up to certain expectations. Instead of doing it the convential way he is taking his sweet ass time making sure no stone is left unturned. WHy? Because he knows this is it. This will define his career. Hes not into the whole touring and being in the spotlight. Hes doing things on his terms so he doesnt have to meet anyones demands other than himself.

From a public perspective, I think it has to open and stay at #1 for multiple weeks, stay in the top quarter of the charts for at least a year, produce multiple chart topping Billboard Mainstream Rock singles and at least 2 crossover singles that hit the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100.

agreed

[Falcon]

You are entitled to believe otherwise, but the guy is fragile. Fear of failure IMO has kept this project from getting started so far, so what makes you believe that if he releases an album he truly believes is the best thing he has ever created and it isn't recieved well and critics throw him under a bus makes you think he is going to dust himself off and try again? I just don't see it happening.

I think the opposite. Far from fragile. Fragile would be not following what you dont think is right. Hes doing what he wants and how he wants. Far from fragile in my book.

I don't know if fragile is the right term, but he has some of the biggest rabbit ears of any artist on the planet.  The critics sting him big time, he remembers names and holds grudges.  Critical acclaim and a being perceived relevent is of major concern to him.

[younggunner]

that doesnt mean hes fragile

[Falcon]

that doesnt mean hes fragile

Fragility in his resolve to pursue his creativit vision?  Absolutely not.

Fragility in his oversensitivity, a desire for critical and public acceptance and current relevence?

Positively so.

[jimmythegent]

Wrong. The company has given GNr a lot of money to produce music. Supposedly they have 3 albums worth of material. Lets say Cd "fails commercially" the company and the band will still atleast put out another album. The company wants to recoup their investment. The only way to do that is to sell records or Axl give them the money instead of music.

Its safe to say that no matter what, we will be getting 2 new gnr albums...you can take that to the bank...

and as long as they are artistically great ill be one happy camper...ill let you handle the numbers

Under the best of circumstances Axl is temperamental. If his album doesn't do well, and is universally panned by critics and the public he is going to hang them up. The record company can release as many albums as they want of GNR material, that will be it for Axl. He has proven he can live without being in the spotlight, and would have no problem walking away.

There is no way if this album doesn't do well that he is going to suck it up, admit maybe his vision was wrong, and start again. If he isn't accepted out of the gate that's it. You are entitled to believe otherwise, but the guy is fragile. Fear of failure IMO has kept this project from getting started so far, so what makes you believe that if he releases an album he truly believes is the best thing he has ever created and it isn't recieved well and critics throw him under a bus makes you think he is going to dust himself off and try again? I just don't see it happening.

This all leads me to this whole thing about recording 10 billion albums before you release 1. If hypothetically that 1 album doesn't go over well, there is a good chance you have to go back and start from scratch. That will have made the entire last 6 years of waiting and recording worthless, as he would have to start over. This I truly believe will be the greatest miscalculation of the project. It is like putting the cart before the horse.

I look at the VR guys and think GNR is in a very similar situation. They were a new act, had to learn to play together and stuff, release an album and see how it goes. For their next album I totally believe it will be much better than CB as you hear from every member to a man the different perspective and closeness you get from being on the road together as a band for over a year and playing together. You can't replicate that growth as a band in a studio. Had they recorded the follow-up to CB before they released the first album, it most likely would sound just like CB and not show the truth growth of the band as a band.

GNR will sadly be devoid of that and I think it creatively is going to end up cheating the process. Had they just worried about getting one done and got it out, toured a bit and recorded again, I have no doubt that album would sound a whole lot different than whatever follow up we will get if we actually ever get one. Being on the road makes a band grow together both personally and musically, which is precisely the reason a debut band has never ever ever recorded their follow up album before they ever released their debut. We laugh about how things have never really been done like this, but for something like recording all follow ups before the public even hears your debut offering, there is a reason for it. If he really didn't want to leave the road after releasing his album that bad (which is always the excuse bantied about by those who defend the 3 album stuff) then he could write while on the road and record demo's at soundchecks and stuff like VR is. That way when you get in the studio you don't have to take 2 years to make an album, you do stuff bit by bit as the inspiration comes.

So that was a bit off the subject, but no way if the album fails will he scrap his project and start over. He will take it personally that it didn't do well, and will just hang it up musically as I don't see him trying to write another album that he again wouldn't even be sure if it would be successful.



Commercial success to me is minimum 4-5 million albums in the states, 10 million world wide. For a project that has as much time and energy put into it as this does, anything short of that is a failure given people like evanescense were able to sell over 3 million albums on what I'm sure was a couple hundred thousand dollar budget, then GNR should be selling at least 4-5 mil given the anticipation and resources that went into this project. There is just no excuse for it to not do that well other than people just not liking it. GNR as a band name has sold like 30 some-odd million albums in the states as a brand, getting 4-5 million in sales would mean getting even only 20% of those who own at least 1 gnr album to buy CD. If they can't do that they are finished in terms of their place in today's rock world.


Excellent post - I agree 110%. Axls future in the music industry is hinging on CD and it will have to be a strong and visible sucess for Axl to stick around.

[axlsfriend]

napuis i agree with you 100 percent i think if the album fails you will never here from w axl rose again but i dont think failing is based on a number of sales.  you have to remeber what we are dealing with axl rose is not as care free and fuck what everyone says as some might think.  him not responding to old members ripping him shows stregnth and maturity and also supports that he does not give a fuck, but a man who tours with a psyciatrist is obviously not very stable.also that whole howard stern story about axl getting very upset about the reviews makes me think that one stupid asshole on the radio with a bad review could make him cancel a tour and go into hiding for another 3 years and counting means that  public opinions do bother him very much. Which leads me to think even if the album sells well, 3 million U.S of my opinion of sucessful in 2005, that the bad reviews alone will probablly make him cancel any tour before it even begins.  Anyone who visits this site reguarly knows the media is against axl and reviews will be mostly all negative, most likely insulting and overly negative which will scare plenty of possible purchasers from buying cd.  if the music is great enough and the radio gives it a chance it will shut everyone up.  i would not count on this to be anything more then just a great album.  things have changed alot since illusion days kids are different now nobody is going to embrace a 40 something year old singer with a bad public reputation.  the real music fans and axl fans will see the shows buy the album and that should be enough.  if chinese democracy sells 5 million albums in the u.s axl should be very happy go back into the studio record more shit with the band and release more music right away, and if he wants to release some of that other material he has he should do that after the newly recorded followup to cd.  You would also be surprised what a sucessful gnr album and a sucessful 1 or 2 velvet revolver albums could do in helping a possible reunion.  if axl is looking to take over the music world again and thats what he expects i think he should save his energy b/c its not happening in this day in age. i WOULD LOVE TO SEE IT MORE THEN ANYONE.     

[gnrkoncerti]

I don't like rollingstone!!!
Some rock or heavy magazine and some newspapers(like nypost,la times)

[Pandora]

Once I've heard the album and formed my own opinion, I'll read all the reviews, just because I feed on paper. But I'll probably laugh at most of them 

[welshrose]

There is no way in hell I will read any review before I listen to the record. I want a completely clean head. I dont want to know what songs are the epics, what song this is, what the single is..etc. Once any prejudgments enter your mind you will not listen to it the same way.

On behalf of music sales for Chinese Democracy, I think everyone and their mother will pick it up just because of the mystery behind it, it is pretty much the most labored hard rock record ever. Millions of dollars, countless studio hours, revivsions, lineup changes, aborted themes and styles, it will sell alone on that factor.

I think if GNR ever tour again they will stick to overseas markets more often. South America, Europe, Japan, Austrailia. In the United States everything has a label and everything is prejudged, you have 2billion critics calling you this and that and it makes the vibe crappy. While I am an American, I think our audiences suck, we are hard to please and we keep asking for more. When I listen to a bootleg of Osaka compared to like Chicago, the Osaka crowd seems so much cooler, chanting, having fun, just there to have a good time. Where as at home we sit with our arms crossed going impress me, fuck that shite.

Chinese Democracy: USA 5million Worldwide: 10million

[Christos AG]

My own...

[ppbebe]

after listening the damn thing Perhaps I'll read them to judge each critics credibility.
Some of them are already out of the question tho.

That Axl being fragile strains credulity. I thought BH might be quite fragile but Axl?
everybody creates their god in their own image.

[madagas]

First of all, I don't think Axl gives two shits if Geffen makes money. If they made a bad business deal, it doesn't affect him because by most accounts he will be finished with Geffen after Chinese anyway. I can't see him staying on. I think he will group everything-publishing, record company etc with Sanctuary. Also, Geffen as a company folded in the late 90's- I believe-then came back in to existence within the last few years (??-anyone know specifics?). Financially, we do not know how much of the invested money with Axl has been written off. In other words, of the 13 million, maybe 6-7 has already been written off. THESE FIGURES ARE ALL BEST GUESSES ANYWAY. NOBODY ON THESE BOARDS KNOWS WHAT THE ACTUAL COSTS ARE AND WHO HAS PAID THEM-Axl's own money, advances, Geffen money, etc. The most important thing with Chinese is AXL making money. If he makes money, we will get another record. Simple as that.

[Voodoochild]

I'll try to read the first reviews and then I'll get sick.
But I'm looking foward to read the reviews from some users here like jarmo, ppbebe, Gypsy, norway and nesquick. I guess that CD review thread will be the bigger one here. 

[Eva GnRAxlRosette]

I'm looking forward to seeing GN'R's guitarists featured in Guitar World magazine