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Author Topic: Donald Trump & 2016 Election  (Read 148966 times)
pilferk
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« Reply #3600 on: November 03, 2019, 11:44:22 AM »

Bad news for those who are cheering for a recession -

October job creation comes in at 128,000, easily topping estimates even with GM auto strike

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 in October, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
   
There were big revisions of past numbers as well. Augustís initial 168,000 payrolls addition was revised up to 219,000, while Septemberís jumped from 136,000 to 180,000.
   
The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher to 3.6% from 3.5%, still near the lowest in 50 years.
 
The pace of average hourly earnings picked up a bit, rising 0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain.

more - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/01/jobs-report-october-2019.html

Good thing nobody around here is doing that (or has done that) and anyone who says they have is lying (and its a lie people on here have called you out for, in the past).

Again, truth is your friend.

These numbers mean average monthly job growth, year over year, is slowing (167k per month in 2019 vs 223k per month in 2018).  The number beat expectations....which were incredibly low...which is the one bright spot in these numbers.  It's really the only one.  Trumps first 3 years of job growth numbers continue to pale in comparison to Obamas, over his last 3 years.

Wage growth was a paltry .1% for the month, and has stagnated.  That's not good, given we're at full employment.  It again shows that companies are hoarding their tax money/using it for stock buy backs vs using it for hiring or to push wages higher.

Manufacturing is doing horrible. 3 straight months of job decline and no real changes to that in sight.

It's nice to see the upward revisions for Aug and Sept....but I'll withhold judgement on their accuracy because they are the first upward revisions we've seen recently (after a LONG string of downward revisions which were questionable in terms of timeliness and %).

GDP growth for Q3 was 1.9%.  We glossed passed that over the past couple weeks....slowing further.  And since GDP growth is the ACTUAL indicator tied to a recession, it's the one we should all be more concerned with.

Personal consumption is down a full percentage point.

Business investment is down precipitously, and trending into negative territory.

Services consumption is down by close to 30%.

Q4 GDP growth is being projected about at 1% right now.

A "slower but less disappointing than we expected" jobs report isn't an indicator that the economy isn't slowing.

As always, we'll see.  But for those hoping to avoid a recession (which is pretty much everyone, I'd guess), the news isn't all roses and rainbows...and neither, really, is the jobs report. 
« Last Edit: November 03, 2019, 12:15:48 PM by pilferk » Logged

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« Reply #3601 on: November 03, 2019, 06:35:31 PM »

Now Trump is withholding funding getting California for wildfire cleaning. Someone might want to let him know those are federal lands, therefore the responsibility of the government. They should also tell him many of those areas are conservative strongholds.
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« Reply #3602 on: November 05, 2019, 09:33:08 PM »

Bad night for Trump. Kentucky goes blue for governor, and both houses in Virginia go blue.
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pilferk
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« Reply #3603 on: November 09, 2019, 07:38:49 AM »

Bad night for Trump. Kentucky goes blue for governor, and both houses in Virginia go blue.

"He was down 15 points in the polls and I made it close".

No, no he wasn't.  He was UP 5 point in the most recent polls, and up 3 to 4 pts in the aggregate polls.  He was NEVER...not one time in the entire polling cycle for the race, "down 15 points".  In fact, there was only one cycle (back in July), where the Republican candidate was trailing the race.

I love how he just outright lies and his base totally eats the bullshit with a smile.
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Together again,
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pilferk
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« Reply #3604 on: November 09, 2019, 07:42:26 AM »

So, Trump may have violated his own settlement agreement for the lawsuit concerning his "charity".

In the agreement, Trump is supposed to admit to wrongdoing, pay the penalties (which the court AND the prosecutor wanted to actually go to charity.....charities THEY (not Trump) picked), and not run another charity organization (I assume "ever" because there is no duration in the parts of the agreement that have been publically released).

Trump, in his statement, specifically says there was NO wrongdoing (the "only technical violations" doesn't meet the standard put forth in the settlement, reportedly)...and leads people to believe the contribution to charities, and who those charities were, was up to him.  None of that is true....to the surprise of no one, I'm sure.

Prosecutors AND the judge on the case are considering overriding the settlement and making them come back to court.

They only asked for 2.8 million and got 2, since the judge, via forensic accounting anlysis, says about 800,000 ACTUALLY made its way to charity (less than 30% of the money raised).
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 07:46:54 AM by pilferk » Logged

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« Reply #3605 on: November 10, 2019, 12:03:39 AM »

Bad night for Trump. Kentucky goes blue for governor, and both houses in Virginia go blue.

"He was down 15 points in the polls and I made it close".

No, no he wasn't.  He was UP 5 point in the most recent polls, and up 3 to 4 pts in the aggregate polls.  He was NEVER...not one time in the entire polling cycle for the race, "down 15 points".  In fact, there was only one cycle (back in July), where the Republican candidate was trailing the race.

I love how he just outright lies and his base totally eats the bullshit with a smile.

What's worse is his Trumpism candidates are no longer just losing urban areas. People in the burbs are turning on him and the Republican party in general. Look what happened in PA in the suburbs of Philly. Democrats are coming out in droves since the miderms. This off year election saw a large turnout in states like Kentucky, Virginia, Indiana and Pennsylvania.
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pilferk
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« Reply #3606 on: Yesterday at 11:38:20 AM »

Bad night for Trump. Kentucky goes blue for governor, and both houses in Virginia go blue.

"He was down 15 points in the polls and I made it close".

No, no he wasn't.  He was UP 5 point in the most recent polls, and up 3 to 4 pts in the aggregate polls.  He was NEVER...not one time in the entire polling cycle for the race, "down 15 points".  In fact, there was only one cycle (back in July), where the Republican candidate was trailing the race.

I love how he just outright lies and his base totally eats the bullshit with a smile.

What's worse is his Trumpism candidates are no longer just losing urban areas. People in the burbs are turning on him and the Republican party in general. Look what happened in PA in the suburbs of Philly. Democrats are coming out in droves since the miderms. This off year election saw a large turnout in states like Kentucky, Virginia, Indiana and Pennsylvania.

And just that like, today, it's 19 points. Trump says Bevin was down 19 points going into the Trump rally.

Bevin was up FIVE POINTS in a poll the day before Trump's rally.  The aggregate had him up 2 to 3 points in the week before the election.

Unreal.  Down 19 points?  And some repubs insist he doesn't lie nearly daily?   rofl
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Together again,
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GypsySoul
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« Reply #3607 on: Yesterday at 06:26:38 PM »

  And some repubs insist he doesn't lie nearly daily?   rofl

And some democrats insist he isn't President nearly daily! lmao

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God chose those whom the world considers absurd to shame the wise (1 Corinthians 1:27)
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