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Author Topic: Covid-19 (not gnr related)  (Read 47431 times)
cineater
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« Reply #60 on: March 24, 2020, 01:44:43 PM »

Geez, it's a full on panic around here.  Long story but we raided the greenhouse last night before they could lock us out.  I'm going to be sick of salads before this is over.  If it kills me, I have the flowers to bury me under.

I don't know what they are doing on capitol hill.  Still playing politics and not practicing social distancing.  Their time is running out.
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« Reply #61 on: March 24, 2020, 04:57:10 PM »

It's just a matter of time before I get it now.  Were at 35 confirmed cases but several of those people are out going around in public. One attended a funeral where dozens of my co-workers were. Several of them have gotten sick.  So much needless death.
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Dr. Blutarsky
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« Reply #62 on: March 24, 2020, 06:58:38 PM »

Remember that COVID-19 isn't a death sentence. The only thing we really know for sure in the numbers are the deaths. With inadequate testing we dont know how many have it. So the bright side is that as we test more the mortality rate becomes clearer and also lower. Trying to find the silver lining.
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« Reply #63 on: March 24, 2020, 07:12:58 PM »

Remember that COVID-19 isn't a death sentence. The only thing we really know for sure in the numbers are the deaths. With inadequate testing we dont know how many have it. So the bright side is that as we test more the mortality rate becomes clearer and also lower. Trying to find the silver lining.

Absolutely

And was listening to Trump's reasoning for trying to get people ready for an Easter return to normal and he is using the flu and the enormous number of deaths associated with it each year and how it'd be unheard of to shut down an entire country over that - which is understandable logic to some extent - but we are in the infant stages of this spread and still don't really know for sure its full impact and potency - so while there are still so many people suffering in NYC and Cali, Wash - I just thing he needs to cool his jets for awhile longer on this idea.
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cineater
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« Reply #64 on: March 24, 2020, 07:15:10 PM »

It's just a matter of time before I get it now.  Were at 35 confirmed cases but several of those people are out going around in public. One attended a funeral where dozens of my co-workers were. Several of them have gotten sick.  So much needless death.

My daughter feels the same.  No way is she not going to get it.  I hold on to it's not a killer for everyone.
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« Reply #65 on: March 24, 2020, 07:34:10 PM »

Remember that COVID-19 isn't a death sentence. The only thing we really know for sure in the numbers are the deaths. With inadequate testing we dont know how many have it. So the bright side is that as we test more the mortality rate becomes clearer and also lower. Trying to find the silver lining.

Absolutely

And was listening to Trump's reasoning for trying to get people ready for an Easter return to normal and he is using the flu and the enormous number of deaths associated with it each year and how it'd be unheard of to shut down an entire country over that - which is understandable logic to some extent - but we are in the infant stages of this spread and still don't really know for sure its full impact and potency - so while there are still so many people suffering in NYC and Cali, Wash - I just thing he needs to cool his jets for awhile longer on this idea.

I think we will have a better feel for where this is going end of the month. I'm not seeing things getting back to normal by Easter, but maybe by then we can have more precise measures that will allow some to go back to work safely.
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« Reply #66 on: March 24, 2020, 08:46:35 PM »

Remember that COVID-19 isn't a death sentence. The only thing we really know for sure in the numbers are the deaths. With inadequate testing we dont know how many have it. So the bright side is that as we test more the mortality rate becomes clearer and also lower. Trying to find the silver lining.

Absolutely

And was listening to Trump's reasoning for trying to get people ready for an Easter return to normal and he is using the flu and the enormous number of deaths associated with it each year and how it'd be unheard of to shut down an entire country over that - which is understandable logic to some extent - but we are in the infant stages of this spread and still don't really know for sure its full impact and potency - so while there are still so many people suffering in NYC and Cali, Wash - I just thing he needs to cool his jets for awhile longer on this idea.

I think we will have a better feel for where this is going end of the month. I'm not seeing things getting back to normal by Easter, but maybe by then we can have more precise measures that will allow some to go back to work safely.

That is true enough - fingers crossed
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cineater
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« Reply #67 on: March 24, 2020, 11:05:02 PM »

My daughter has her first patients.
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« Reply #68 on: March 25, 2020, 12:58:59 AM »

Now Trump is wanting to relax restrictions in a few weeks instead of months when all the experts say this will have dire consequences. Look at Italy, Spain, China and the UK. If states follow what he says we are gonna see a great many infected and die due to overloading the healthcare system. Italy finally in just the last two days after a month of strict lockdown is seeing a second straight day decrease in new cases and deaths. It is still horrible the number but a decrease is hope for cautious optimism.

You watch - if this anti-malaria drug shows promise (we'll know in a matter of days), Trump will absolutely relax restrictions.
He's just setting the table now.

If only the American people could vote on things like this because the ramifications if he is wrong will be non-reverseable and I believe most people would be on same page with this - in that whenever he says "open it up" - add 3 months to be safe

Even if it does show signs of helping it's gonna take months not weeks to know. The early testing done with this drug is q when grotto was not exactly promising. If he gets this wrong were talking hundreds of thousands of deaths or millions, as opposed to thousands. Now he's saying by Easter at the town hall. He did sister his stance later at the briefing, that he'd make the decision based on hard facts. I hope so because we have one chance to not screw this up. He needs to listen to Dr Fauci, Dr Brix etc.
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« Reply #69 on: March 25, 2020, 01:05:03 AM »

Food for thought 20% people age 20-44 require hospitalization based on current numbers we have. That's frightening. We need way more data from testing so we know how many have it and where we need to concentrate resources on before we even think of opening up the economy again.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 01:07:45 AM by tim_m » Logged
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« Reply #70 on: March 25, 2020, 01:09:21 AM »

My daughter has her first patients.

Thank her for ge6t selfless service in this fight. I can only imagine what those on the front lines are dealing with.
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« Reply #71 on: March 25, 2020, 02:20:12 AM »

The Whitehouse and Senate have come to an agreement finally. Vote tomorrow will certainly pass by vote later and go to the presidents desk.
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pilferk
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« Reply #72 on: March 25, 2020, 06:27:43 AM »

Food for thought 20% people age 20-44 require hospitalization based on current numbers we have. That's frightening. We need way more data from testing so we know how many have it and where we need to concentrate resources on before we even think of opening up the economy again.

So, to weigh in just a bit:

Here's the problem.  20% of those that have been tested and confirmed to be positive, in that age bracket, require hospitalization.  That's an important distinction.  Because, at least in the states, the ONLY way you get tested is if your symptoms are severe enough to warrant testing and/or you are in a high risk population.

Because testing is so limited, we know our denominator in ANY data analytics is wrong, and probably wrong exponentially.  And for THAT demographic, especially.  Because many, many, many people are going to have get the virus in that age bracket and are NEVER going to get tested.  Either their symptoms are not severe enough, they are not in a high risk group, or they simply don't know they have it because they are asymptomatic/symptom atypical/think they have a cold/the flu.  Because there is evidence that a HUGE portion of people who have the virus have minor symptoms, and because there is such a HUGE shortage when it comes to number of tests....our analytics suck.  Plain and simple.

And I'm not talking out of my ass on this one. This is what I've done (and am doing), in this exact context and setting, for the last 20+ years.  We have shitty data right now.  We are providing data based on numbers we know are flat out wrong, but it's the best we can do right now.

What we need is 120 million tests....with a test as easy and common to administer as a flu test.  We are a long way from that, right now.
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« Reply #73 on: March 25, 2020, 06:56:21 AM »

Food for thought 20% people age 20-44 require hospitalization based on current numbers we have. That's frightening. We need way more data from testing so we know how many have it and where we need to concentrate resources on before we even think of opening up the economy again.

So, to weigh in just a bit:

Here's the problem.  20% of those that have been tested and confirmed to be positive, in that age bracket, require hospitalization.  That's an important distinction.  Because, at least in the states, the ONLY way you get tested is if your symptoms are severe enough to warrant testing and/or you are in a high risk population.

Because testing is so limited, we know our denominator in ANY data analytics is wrong, and probably wrong exponentially.  And for THAT demographic, especially.  Because many, many, many people are going to have get the virus in that age bracket and are NEVER going to get tested.  Either their symptoms are not severe enough, they are not in a high risk group, or they simply don't know they have it because they are asymptomatic/symptom atypical/think they have a cold/the flu.  Because there is evidence that a HUGE portion of people who have the virus have minor symptoms, and because there is such a HUGE shortage when it comes to number of tests....our analytics suck.  Plain and simple.

And I'm not talking out of my ass on this one. This is what I've done (and am doing), in this exact context and setting, for the last 20+ years.  We have shitty data right now.  We are providing data based on numbers we know are flat out wrong, but it's the best we can do right now.

What we need is 120 million tests....with a test as easy and common to administer as a flu test.  We are a long way from that, right now.

We need that 45 minute test the FDA approved stat. We need more labs that can process the tests because there is a huge backlog. If we were able to do proper testing of that age group the percentage of hospitalizations would likely be more around the worldwide average of 6-7%. The only ways we get out of this until there's a vaccine is social distancing stay at home orders and not for 2-3 weeks. We need 8-10 weeks. Look at Italy they are JUST NOW starting to see nationwide new cases going down country wide and no new cases in the last 24 hours in the city it started. Then we need a sharp increase in testing.
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« Reply #74 on: March 25, 2020, 06:56:47 AM »

Plus - Germany is showing quite a low rate of death compared to the # of cases.
Could it be that the early testing allows early treatment and caution? - possibly mitigating the effects?

When you have a disaster getting the testing out from the beginning - a lot of people who are being tested now - especially in Nyc - could be those dealing with very bad cases - and are dying.

And as mentioned above, not being able to test the average person early because symptoms are not that bad is a little illogical.


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tim_m
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« Reply #75 on: March 25, 2020, 07:18:30 AM »

Plus - Germany is showing quite a low rate of death compared to the # of cases.
Could it be that the early testing allows early treatment and caution? - possibly mitigating the effects?

When you have a disaster getting the testing out from the beginning - a lot of people who are being tested now - especially in Nyc - could be those dealing with very bad cases - and are dying.

And as mentioned above, not being able to test the average person early because symptoms are not that bad is a little illogical.



We have to increase testing it just that simple. How is the tougher question. Hopefully the stimulus can mitigate this. If we can get a better idea of who has it and where it is spreading the most we are in for a world of hurt for quite a few months.
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« Reply #76 on: March 25, 2020, 07:19:24 AM »

Prince Charles has tested positive for covid-19 experiencing mild symptoms but otherwise healthy.
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pilferk
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« Reply #77 on: March 25, 2020, 08:56:03 AM »

We need that 45 minute test the FDA approved stat. We need more labs that can process the tests because there is a huge backlog. If we were able to do proper testing of that age group the percentage of hospitalizations would likely be more around the worldwide average of 6-7%. The only ways we get out of this until there's a vaccine is social distancing stay at home orders and not for 2-3 weeks. We need 8-10 weeks. Look at Italy they are JUST NOW starting to see nationwide new cases going down country wide and no new cases in the last 24 hours in the city it started. Then we need a sharp increase in testing.
'

I think 8 weeks is the sweet spot.  I'm not sure the global (and US economy) can handle a whole lot longer than that.  And if the economy collapses....the fact is you're going to kill people through starvation, lack of housing, and societal collapse/looting, etc as supplies run low and people REALLY start to panic.  You're also going to run into people who just say fuck it after 8 weeks, and set up illegal "prohibition style" businesses so they can make a living.  It's hard to care about the at risk populations when you can't put food on your table and feed your immediate family.

I don't agree with the President's timeline (by easter? No way!), but I do agree that we have to walk a delicate balance, here.  We have to make sure everyone ELSE can recover from the non-medical damage this is doing to the country, while at the same time protecting the at risk populations.  Right now, the at risk populations are the focus. That's as it should be.  By mid June, we're going to have to have tough discussions, if we haven't flattened things out.  There are no easy answers.

What I do know is that a vaccine is about 20 months out.  14 months to observe the live human subject....and assuming the vaccine currently in testing is actually effective and there's no serious/mortal side effects, 6 months to get it produced and rolled out to the world.

We can't do this for 20 months.  It's just not feasible.  So we have to find SOMETHING, SOMEHOW to go back to normal long before then.  Treatments, vastly increased equipment and resources....SOMETHING(S) to help, and ways to protect the at risk populations as much as we can.  Because self isolation/lockdowns and a shuttered economy for 20 months wouldn't last 20 months.  Society and the global economy would crumble long before then. And the virus would run rampant, anyways....I think we could potentially do it for 4...MAYBE 5 months.  But no more than that til things get BAD.

Maybe I'm cynical.  Maybe I don't have enough faith in my fellow man.  But look at Trump and some of his supporters RIGHT NOW.  They're already sick of this and want it to end.  I don't think, even in the face of rising death tolls, that sentiment is going to mellow much.  If anything, it will grow exponentially, just like it's own virus.

Be safe, stay home, AND WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS (and phones)!!!
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 08:59:30 AM by pilferk » Logged

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tim_m
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« Reply #78 on: March 25, 2020, 09:23:00 AM »

We need that 45 minute test the FDA approved stat. We need more labs that can process the tests because there is a huge backlog. If we were able to do proper testing of that age group the percentage of hospitalizations would likely be more around the worldwide average of 6-7%. The only ways we get out of this until there's a vaccine is social distancing stay at home orders and not for 2-3 weeks. We need 8-10 weeks. Look at Italy they are JUST NOW starting to see nationwide new cases going down country wide and no new cases in the last 24 hours in the city it started. Then we need a sharp increase in testing.
'

I think 8 weeks is the sweet spot.  I'm not sure the global (and US economy) can handle a whole lot longer than that.  And if the economy collapses....the fact is you're going to kill people through starvation, lack of housing, and societal collapse/looting, etc as supplies run low and people REALLY start to panic.  You're also going to run into people who just say fuck it after 8 weeks, and set up illegal "prohibition style" businesses so they can make a living.  It's hard to care about the at risk populations when you can't put food on your table and feed your immediate family.

I don't agree with the President's timeline (by easter? No way!), but I do agree that we have to walk a delicate balance, here.  We have to make sure everyone ELSE can recover from the non-medical damage this is doing to the country, while at the same time protecting the at risk populations.  Right now, the at risk populations are the focus. That's as it should be.  By mid June, we're going to have to have tough discussions, if we haven't flattened things out.  There are no easy answers.

What I do know is that a vaccine is about 20 months out.  14 months to observe the live human subject....and assuming the vaccine currently in testing is actually effective and there's no serious/mortal side effects, 6 months to get it produced and rolled out to the world.

We can't do this for 20 months.  It's just not feasible.  So we have to find SOMETHING, SOMEHOW to go back to normal long before then.  Treatments, vastly increased equipment and resources....SOMETHING(S) to help, and ways to protect the at risk populations as much as we can.  Because self isolation/lockdowns and a shuttered economy for 20 months wouldn't last 20 months.  Society and the global economy would crumble long before then. And the virus would run rampant, anyways....I think we could potentially do it for 4...MAYBE 5 months.  But no more than that til things get BAD.

Maybe I'm cynical.  Maybe I don't have enough faith in my fellow man.  But look at Trump and some of his supporters RIGHT NOW.  They're already sick of this and want it to end.  I don't think, even in the face of rising death tolls, that sentiment is going to mellow much.  If anything, it will grow exponentially, just like it's own virus.

Be safe, stay home, AND WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS (and phones)!!!

In Trump's defense he did walk back the hardline easter date during the briefing. I think 8  weeks can flatten the curve if we fallow the guidelines  We absolutely have to worry most about the high risk people but we can't pretend younger people can't get very sick with this. There are glimmers of hope though in other countries that have social isolating. China of course has done it and is getting ready to return to normal, South Korea has, Germany and finally signs of some hope in Italy. No new cases in the city the outbreak started yesterday and new infections are down 3 straight days and they are what 3 weeks in lockdown? We can do this in 8 week if we stay diligent. We do it and hopefully we're all rocking out at the GNR show this summer.

I'm staying home as much as possible. Unfortunately i have had no choice to go to my wound doctor because it could literally mean life and death. I'm nearly healed though thankfully and am only having to go every 2 weeks now. I've also taken to leaving my phone at home and washing my hands before i leave and when i get home so that nothing is getting on the phone.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 09:26:49 AM by tim_m » Logged
cineater
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« Reply #79 on: March 25, 2020, 11:49:41 PM »

Has anybody said how we are recouping all this money because I don't think we have it in savings.
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The wheel is turning and you can't slow down
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You can't go back and you can't stand still
If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will
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