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Author Topic: The NEW 2020 Election Thread  (Read 24745 times)
jarmo
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« Reply #940 on: October 27, 2020, 06:45:16 AM »

And yes, I think there should be a national standard, as well as a national holiday.

You will find most conservatives disagree.


Yeah. That's how it usually works. The ones who wouldn't benefit from something are against it. For no other reason.



I do agree with Trump, when he speaks of a rigged election. But it's not the election that's rigged. It seems the whole system is outdated and faulty to the point where it's not the one that gets the most votes from the people who gets elected. Plus, making it harder for people to vote should be criminal since that goes against the whole basic idea of democratic elections to begin with....

On the other hand, if your interest is to serve the elite few and keep that status, then obviously none of that is a problem for you.





/jarmo
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cineater
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« Reply #941 on: October 27, 2020, 10:23:42 AM »

That just felt shady as fuck.  A new supreme court justice should not be sworn it late at night like they are being snuck in there.
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« Reply #942 on: October 27, 2020, 12:03:26 PM »

They're just using the system to their advantage.

And people think decency and honor somehow exists....


Just wait and see. The party of "government should stay out of peoples' lives" will start telling people exactly what they can and can't do. And who matters and who doesn't.





/jarmo
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« Reply #943 on: October 27, 2020, 12:45:06 PM »

That just felt shady as fuck.  A new supreme court justice should not be sworn it late at night like they are being snuck in there.
Then immediately adjourned meaning no stimulus before the election. Shame on all of them.
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tim_m
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« Reply #944 on: October 27, 2020, 12:46:30 PM »

They're just using the system to their advantage.

And people think decency and honor somehow exists....


Just wait and see. The party of "government should stay out of peoples' lives" will start telling people exactly what they can and can't do. And who matters and who doesn't.





/jarmo


Yep, and people like my mom think it is the democrats who want to do that.  Roll Eyes
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jarmo
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« Reply #945 on: October 27, 2020, 02:45:00 PM »

Yep, and people like my mom think it is the democrats who want to do that.  Roll Eyes


It's 2020 and the Democrats who are middle of the road are labeled far left socialists by people who support a Republican party that's gone further right than they probably ever have in history....

And have a leader in the party who's closer to far right authoritarian leaders than any previous presidents.




/jarmo
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« Reply #946 on: October 27, 2020, 05:39:54 PM »

Yep, and people like my mom think it is the democrats who want to do that.  Roll Eyes


It's 2020 and the Democrats who are middle of the road are labeled far left socialists by people who support a Republican party that's gone further right than they probably ever have in history....

And have a leader in the party who's closer to far right authoritarian leaders than any previous presidents.




/jarmo


That about sums it up and they refuse to our can't see it. When someone tells you who they are believe them. How many times does one person have to say I'm not leaving before they believe him. Truth is though, they know this they just can't bring themselves to admit they were wrong.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 05:52:23 PM by tim_m » Logged
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« Reply #947 on: October 28, 2020, 01:28:41 AM »

It's 2020 and the Democrats who are middle of the road are labeled far left socialists by people who support a Republican party that's gone further right than they probably ever have in history....

And have a leader in the party who's closer to far right authoritarian leaders than any previous presidents.

Also from Umberto Eco's Ur-Fascism:

7. "Obsession with a Plot" and the hyping-up of an enemy threat. This often combines an appeal to xenophobia with a fear of disloyalty and sabotage from marginalized groups living within the society.

Here's the thing; people are afraid to call Trump a Fascist because they think of Fascism as a state that is achieved, after all civil rights are abandoned and a totalitarian dictatorship is installed. But that is not true. Fascism is an ideology. Mussolini was a Fascist before he obtained any power at all. He didn't become one after seizing power.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 01:32:42 AM by PermissionToLand » Logged
tim_m
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« Reply #948 on: October 28, 2020, 08:36:46 AM »

Is it just me or is Trump's slurred speech deteriorating like really bad.
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pilferk
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« Reply #949 on: October 28, 2020, 11:51:34 AM »

Is it just me or is Trump's slurred speech deteriorating like really bad.

He's getting more and more frustrated.  I think that's playing out in his speeches (and speech patterns).

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« Reply #950 on: October 28, 2020, 12:00:53 PM »

I love watching people go crazy over the narrowing polls.  First of all, its like they don't look at the underlying polls and actually digest what the numbers are saying. Second, it's like they don't understand that more and more people make up their mind the closer we get to Tuesday.

For example:
RealClear shows Biden's national lead narrowing by about a point, recently.  What the aggregate doesn't tell you is that the recent aggregtion is depending on 3 polls that have been "pro-Trump" all election season, showing narrower margins than other pollsters (because they use HEAVILY weighted Repub Likely Voter models).  Those polls are IBD, Emerson, and Rasmussen.  We've long established Rasmussen is pretty much garbage, and it seems like their poll results are meant for an audience of one.  IBD and Emerson both show Biden up 5.  Here's the thing: Last poll for IBD showed Biden up 3...and the last Emerson poll showed Biden up 4.  In actuality, even though those polls are weighted Repub, they're actually showing a WIDENING of Biden's lead.  It's just their numbers have been so out of wack, and now are being heavily factored in RCP's aggregate, they appear to show the opposite.

Same goes for PA.  Pundits are pearl clutching over the polls because Biden's lead has dropped, in aggregate, by about 3 points.  Again, they're not looking deeper.  Two of the 8 polls being used in the PA aggregate are not just repub leaning, they are repub funded.  Insider Advantage and Trafalgar are widely regarded as TERRIBLE polls. One shows Trump up one, one shows a tie.  EVERY other reputable poll shows Biden up between 5 and 10, with half those polls taken AFTER the last debate.

And before anyone runs in and says it: No, I don't think the polls are the end all be all as a predictor to what's going to happen next week.  My point, rather, is that if you're going to actually get worked up, or even discuss, the polling...you should probably understand what it means, and what the underlying polls mean to the aggregates.
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« Reply #951 on: October 28, 2020, 12:41:17 PM »

Is it just me or is Trump's slurred speech deteriorating like really bad.

He's getting more and more frustrated.  I think that's playing out in his speeches (and speech patterns).




I watch them all on Youtube and he sounds like he's had a few too many. It is really getting noticeably bad.
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tim_m
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« Reply #952 on: October 28, 2020, 12:50:05 PM »

I love watching people go crazy over the narrowing polls.  First of all, its like they don't look at the underlying polls and actually digest what the numbers are saying. Second, it's like they don't understand that more and more people make up their mind the closer we get to Tuesday.

For example:
RealClear shows Biden's national lead narrowing by about a point, recently.  What the aggregate doesn't tell you is that the recent aggregtion is depending on 3 polls that have been "pro-Trump" all election season, showing narrower margins than other pollsters (because they use HEAVILY weighted Repub Likely Voter models).  Those polls are IBD, Emerson, and Rasmussen.  We've long established Rasmussen is pretty much garbage, and it seems like their poll results are meant for an audience of one.  IBD and Emerson both show Biden up 5.  Here's the thing: Last poll for IBD showed Biden up 3...and the last Emerson poll showed Biden up 4.  In actuality, even though those polls are weighted Repub, they're actually showing a WIDENING of Biden's lead.  It's just their numbers have been so out of wack, and now are being heavily factored in RCP's aggregate, they appear to show the opposite.

Same goes for PA.  Pundits are pearl clutching over the polls because Biden's lead has dropped, in aggregate, by about 3 points.  Again, they're not looking deeper.  Two of the 8 polls being used in the PA aggregate are not just repub leaning, they are repub funded.  Insider Advantage and Trafalgar are widely regarded as TERRIBLE polls. One shows Trump up one, one shows a tie.  EVERY other reputable poll shows Biden up between 5 and 10, with half those polls taken AFTER the last debate.

And before anyone runs in and says it: No, I don't think the polls are the end all be all as a predictor to what's going to happen next week.  My point, rather, is that if you're going to actually get worked up, or even discuss, the polling...you should probably understand what it means, and what the underlying polls mean to the aggregates.
Even today Emerson has it widening, with Biden up 5. As for Trafalgar, they'll use the logic well it was one of the few to guess Trump won the rust belt, but even a broke clock is right twice a day, but even they are having Biden up recently in several key states. Today's polls look bad for Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine 2. Another thing to consider, in 2016 neither Hillary or Trump cracked 50%. In 2020 Biden consistently is nationally and in state polls.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 12:51:56 PM by tim_m » Logged
cineater
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« Reply #953 on: October 28, 2020, 01:45:09 PM »

I think Trump's got it, maybe by a lot.

Stock market dropped today.  One week before the election results.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 02:12:41 PM by cineater » Logged

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« Reply #954 on: October 28, 2020, 02:33:45 PM »

These polls are useless.

Didn't they predict Clinton was gonna win last time? And look what happened.

Trump will win again. The USA will be closer to North Korea than its allies in Europe. Alienating democracies because they have leaders who don't kiss his ass.

There's gonna be a lot of untangling to do for the Democrat who will some day take over after the Trump clan gets voted out (2024? 2028?)....







/jarmo

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« Reply #955 on: October 28, 2020, 02:49:00 PM »

The national polls were right. The state polls were all within the margin of error.
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tim_m
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« Reply #956 on: October 28, 2020, 02:58:51 PM »

I think Trump's got it, maybe by a lot.

Stock market dropped today.  One week before the election results.
He may win but it won't be by a lot. He only won the first time by 34 votes.
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« Reply #957 on: October 28, 2020, 07:23:27 PM »

These polls are useless.

Didn't they predict Clinton was gonna win last time? And look what happened.

Trump will win again. The USA will be closer to North Korea than its allies in Europe. Alienating democracies because they have leaders who don't kiss his ass.

There's gonna be a lot of untangling to do for the Democrat who will some day take over after the Trump clan gets voted out (2024? 2028?)....

No, the polls showed her with a solid lead nationwide, which corresponded to her 3 million count popular vote lead. Trump won through the EC because of a few swing states which just barely went in his favor, which polling showed as very tight. So the polls were in fact quite accurate, it was the pundits not paying attention to the right polls (in swing states) that got it wrong.
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pilferk
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« Reply #958 on: October 29, 2020, 07:08:37 AM »

I think Trump's got it, maybe by a lot.

Stock market dropped today.  One week before the election results.

The market drops are largely due to the Repubs refusing to pass a stimulus package.  The markets had priced that package in, figuring the Repubs would eventually get something passed in the Senate. They didn't, so the markets are now shedding that value.

And polls show 70% of people put that blame on Repubs.

If anything....this is bad for Repubs and Trump.  Trump couldn't make the deal.  Also couldn't effectively manage the pandemic, leading to another surge...which is the rest of the market drop.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 07:19:52 AM by pilferk » Logged

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« Reply #959 on: October 29, 2020, 08:22:55 AM »

Damn! I thought this thread would be closer to a 100 pages by now. ghost town for being this close to "the most important election in your lifetimes." hopefully you are all studying the stock market. Buy, buy, buy!

Looks like Biden has this in the bag. but his lead in certain states is not as big as the polls say. there's no way he has a 10 point lead in PA as CNN has been reporting.

the polls were wrong in 2016. pollsters missed the boat on key demographics, over-sampled democrats, and incorrectly interpreted the data. anyone that took time to research the polls could quickly and easily understand that. it was obvious. 

based on how everything has gone this year, a 269-269 result announced in early December feels about right.
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