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Author Topic: The NEW 2020 Election Thread  (Read 24655 times)
tim_m
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« Reply #960 on: October 29, 2020, 09:47:16 AM »

Damn! I thought this thread would be closer to a 100 pages by now. ghost town for being this close to "the most important election in your lifetimes." hopefully you are all studying the stock market. Buy, buy, buy!

Looks like Biden has this in the bag. but his lead in certain states is not as big as the polls say. there's no way he has a 10 point lead in PA as CNN has been reporting.

the polls were wrong in 2016. pollsters missed the boat on key demographics, over-sampled democrats, and incorrectly interpreted the data. anyone that took time to research the polls could quickly and easily understand that. it was obvious. 

based on how everything has gone this year, a 269-269 result announced in early December feels about right.

Your posts never make any sense. You literally contradicted yourself in this very post. They were not wrong, they were within the margin of error
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« Reply #961 on: October 29, 2020, 10:56:00 AM »

Damn! I thought this thread would be closer to a 100 pages by now. ghost town for being this close to "the most important election in your lifetimes." hopefully you are all studying the stock market. Buy, buy, buy!

Looks like Biden has this in the bag. but his lead in certain states is not as big as the polls say. there's no way he has a 10 point lead in PA as CNN has been reporting.

the polls were wrong in 2016. pollsters missed the boat on key demographics, over-sampled democrats, and incorrectly interpreted the data. anyone that took time to research the polls could quickly and easily understand that. it was obvious. 

based on how everything has gone this year, a 269-269 result announced in early December feels about right.

Your posts never make any sense. You literally contradicted yourself in this very post. They were not wrong, they were within the margin of error

someone with your limited intelligence and common sense, I wouldn't expect you to understand much. so it's no surprise you think my posts "never make any sense."

the pollsters themselves disagree with you. but continue to pull that wool down over your eyes. ignore the facts. i know its easier that way, and it feels good. 
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« Reply #962 on: October 29, 2020, 11:10:38 AM »

You literally said Biden has it in the bag, then in the next sentence said it would be a tie. That is contradictory no matter how you slice it

The polling was accurate within the margin of error no matter how you try to spin it otherwise. https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/election-2020/six-days-to-go-how-does-election-polling-compare-to-2016

Comparing 2020 to 2016

The landscape of the race six days out is somewhat similar to the 2016 race.

One key difference is Clintonís lead in national polls was generally smaller than Bidenís lead. The final CNN poll, which was released two weeks before the election, gave Clinton a 5% edge. The final CNBC poll gave Clinton a lead of 9%. But other reputable polls, such as the CBS News Poll, were more narrow. The CBS News poll gave Clinton just a 3% edge. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2%.

Battleground state polls generally were off by a margin of 5%, which is normal in a presidential election. What made things abnormal was those polling errors were just enough to flip the election for Trump in a number of states.

In Michigan, a Detroit Free Press poll released a week before the election showed Clinton up by 4 percent. She ended up losing by .2 percent.

In Pennsylvania, polls generally gave Clinton a modest lead. Her lead in the final CNN poll was 5 percent a week before the election. She ended up losing by 1 percent.

Wisconsin was another state Trump won by about .5%. He trailed Clinton in the Marquette poll by 6% in the final days before the election. Compared to 2016, his deficit in the Marquette poll is slimmer in 2016 than it is currently.

On the flip side, polling in Nevada did not suggest a Clinton win. A CNN poll had Trump up 51-46 just days before the election. Clinton won the state by 2%.
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cineater
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« Reply #963 on: October 29, 2020, 11:46:01 AM »

I don't think you can trust in the polls in an election year where everybody is going out to vote.  I've been trying to vote early but the place is packed.

I'm thinking it's a buy week for stocks too.  No idea on the short term stuff for a quick turn around.  I'm wondering if airline stock isn't your sleeper for a long term gain?  They've been hurt bad but once the pandemic is over, I see business travel returning and personal travel going up big time.  Drugs and housing are probably still safe bets.  I'm concerned about those online tech companies.  They've gotten big and powerful and I think the government is going to be looking at breaking them up.  Amazon is leading the way, don't think they will get fucked with but once everybody catches up, that company will probably get broken up.  For now though, they've got the Christmas business.
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« Reply #964 on: October 29, 2020, 12:21:26 PM »

I don't think you can trust in the polls in an election year where everybody is going out to vote.  I've been trying to vote early but the place is packed.

I'm thinking it's a buy week for stocks too.  No idea on the short term stuff for a quick turn around.  I'm wondering if airline stock isn't your sleeper for a long term gain?  They've been hurt bad but once the pandemic is over, I see business travel returning and personal travel going up big time.  Drugs and housing are probably still safe bets.  I'm concerned about those online tech companies.  They've gotten big and powerful and I think the government is going to be looking at breaking them up.  Amazon is leading the way, don't think they will get fucked with but once everybody catches up, that company will probably get broken up.  For now though, they've got the Christmas business.

Yeah, turnout has been nuts here. We are already about 8 million, possibly more now. I haven't seen Wednesdays numbers yet. as of the end of the day Tuesday is is when we had 8 million or so. Which is almost 90% of the entire 2016 turnout. We are seeing a lot of young voters here as well as first timers. They expect us to top our entire 2016 totals before early voting ends Saturday, which would put us over 9 million. That still leaves almost 8 million possible votes on election day.
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jarmo
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« Reply #965 on: October 29, 2020, 12:47:04 PM »

someone with your limited intelligence and common sense

Whether or not someone lacks intelligence or common sense, there's stlll no need for these kinds of lame insults.

From anyone.

Even from a self proclaimed stable genius.





/jarmo
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« Reply #966 on: October 29, 2020, 01:03:23 PM »

someone with your limited intelligence and common sense

Whether or not someone lacks intelligence or common sense, there's stlll no need for these kinds of lame insults.

From anyone.

Even from a self proclaimed stable genius.





/jarmo


he said my posts never make sense - isn't that an insult on my intelligence, genius?

I did not mean my comment as an insult. just stating a fact.

but, glad you decided to start policing things in this thread. way overdue.
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« Reply #967 on: October 29, 2020, 01:09:53 PM »

I don't think you can trust in the polls in an election year where everybody is going out to vote.  I've been trying to vote early but the place is packed.

I'm thinking it's a buy week for stocks too.  No idea on the short term stuff for a quick turn around.  I'm wondering if airline stock isn't your sleeper for a long term gain?  They've been hurt bad but once the pandemic is over, I see business travel returning and personal travel going up big time.  Drugs and housing are probably still safe bets.  I'm concerned about those online tech companies.  They've gotten big and powerful and I think the government is going to be looking at breaking them up.  Amazon is leading the way, don't think they will get fucked with but once everybody catches up, that company will probably get broken up.  For now though, they've got the Christmas business.

it's essentially always a good time to buy. the more invested you are in the stock market, the better off you and your family will be.

but I agree with you, probably time for big moves. I thought that a month ago and it didn't pay off. although in a few months, everyone will be saying, "if only I could have known". but those people will never know. either you get it or you don't.   
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« Reply #968 on: October 29, 2020, 01:17:13 PM »

You literally said Biden has it in the bag, then in the next sentence said it would be a tie. That is contradictory no matter how you slice it

The polling was accurate within the margin of error no matter how you try to spin it otherwise. https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/election-2020/six-days-to-go-how-does-election-polling-compare-to-2016

Comparing 2020 to 2016

The landscape of the race six days out is somewhat similar to the 2016 race.

One key difference is Clintonís lead in national polls was generally smaller than Bidenís lead. The final CNN poll, which was released two weeks before the election, gave Clinton a 5% edge. The final CNBC poll gave Clinton a lead of 9%. But other reputable polls, such as the CBS News Poll, were more narrow. The CBS News poll gave Clinton just a 3% edge. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2%.

Battleground state polls generally were off by a margin of 5%, which is normal in a presidential election. What made things abnormal was those polling errors were just enough to flip the election for Trump in a number of states.

In Michigan, a Detroit Free Press poll released a week before the election showed Clinton up by 4 percent. She ended up losing by .2 percent.

In Pennsylvania, polls generally gave Clinton a modest lead. Her lead in the final CNN poll was 5 percent a week before the election. She ended up losing by 1 percent.

Wisconsin was another state Trump won by about .5%. He trailed Clinton in the Marquette poll by 6% in the final days before the election. Compared to 2016, his deficit in the Marquette poll is slimmer in 2016 than it is currently.

On the flip side, polling in Nevada did not suggest a Clinton win. A CNN poll had Trump up 51-46 just days before the election. Clinton won the state by 2%.

it was not the next sentence. take a closer look at my post.

also, most people would be able to understand that based on the first part of the sentence where I reference how crazy a year 2020 has been, I was stating this as a joke. a hypothetical that would be fitting for this year. I know that went over your head - not saying because you lack intelligence - just went over your head this time.

here's an article for you...

What's Changed Since Polls Were Wrong About 2016's Presidential Election

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/28/928556186/whats-changed-since-polls-were-wrong-about-2016s-presidential-election

but keep ignoring reality.
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jarmo
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« Reply #969 on: October 29, 2020, 01:49:12 PM »

he said my posts never make sense - isn't that an insult on my intelligence, genius?


Thanks for the compliment.

So you're admitting that you're one of those so called snowflakes....


Your posts not making sense doesn't necessarily have anything to do with someone's intelligence. For the sake of discussion, let's say your posts are so stupid that a regular person with an average intelligence can't comprehend what the fuck you're saying. Then it's not the reader's intelligence that's the real issue...


So my suggestion is that even if you know some of the best words and you're one of those stable geniuses we hear about, use small words that aren't insulting when trying to get your point across. Smiley






/jarmo
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tim_m
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« Reply #970 on: October 29, 2020, 01:54:12 PM »

You literally said Biden has it in the bag, then in the next sentence said it would be a tie. That is contradictory no matter how you slice it

The polling was accurate within the margin of error no matter how you try to spin it otherwise. https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/election-2020/six-days-to-go-how-does-election-polling-compare-to-2016

Comparing 2020 to 2016

The landscape of the race six days out is somewhat similar to the 2016 race.

One key difference is Clintonís lead in national polls was generally smaller than Bidenís lead. The final CNN poll, which was released two weeks before the election, gave Clinton a 5% edge. The final CNBC poll gave Clinton a lead of 9%. But other reputable polls, such as the CBS News Poll, were more narrow. The CBS News poll gave Clinton just a 3% edge. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2%.

Battleground state polls generally were off by a margin of 5%, which is normal in a presidential election. What made things abnormal was those polling errors were just enough to flip the election for Trump in a number of states.

In Michigan, a Detroit Free Press poll released a week before the election showed Clinton up by 4 percent. She ended up losing by .2 percent.

In Pennsylvania, polls generally gave Clinton a modest lead. Her lead in the final CNN poll was 5 percent a week before the election. She ended up losing by 1 percent.

Wisconsin was another state Trump won by about .5%. He trailed Clinton in the Marquette poll by 6% in the final days before the election. Compared to 2016, his deficit in the Marquette poll is slimmer in 2016 than it is currently.

On the flip side, polling in Nevada did not suggest a Clinton win. A CNN poll had Trump up 51-46 just days before the election. Clinton won the state by 2%.

it was not the next sentence. take a closer look at my post.

also, most people would be able to understand that based on the first part of the sentence where I reference how crazy a year 2020 has been, I was stating this as a joke. a hypothetical that would be fitting for this year. I know that went over your head - not saying because you lack intelligence - just went over your head this time.

here's an article for you...

What's Changed Since Polls Were Wrong About 2016's Presidential Election

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/28/928556186/whats-changed-since-polls-were-wrong-about-2016s-presidential-election

but keep ignoring reality.

Humor does not always translate well via text on a screen.  hihi

So you are saying you firmly believe Biden will be president elect?

Polls certainly can be wrong but there are clear differences this time. We will know next week hopefully. I don't believe it will be on election night though.
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tim_m
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« Reply #971 on: October 29, 2020, 02:02:10 PM »

I don't know about the rest of you guys but part of me can't wait for this election to end, i am over all the political texts i am getting. They don't even know my name! They keep calling me Preston.  Huh
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cineater
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« Reply #972 on: October 29, 2020, 02:26:57 PM »

I don't think you can trust in the polls in an election year where everybody is going out to vote.  I've been trying to vote early but the place is packed.

I'm thinking it's a buy week for stocks too.  No idea on the short term stuff for a quick turn around.  I'm wondering if airline stock isn't your sleeper for a long term gain?  They've been hurt bad but once the pandemic is over, I see business travel returning and personal travel going up big time.  Drugs and housing are probably still safe bets.  I'm concerned about those online tech companies.  They've gotten big and powerful and I think the government is going to be looking at breaking them up.  Amazon is leading the way, don't think they will get fucked with but once everybody catches up, that company will probably get broken up.  For now though, they've got the Christmas business.

it's essentially always a good time to buy. the more invested you are in the stock market, the better off you and your family will be.

but I agree with you, probably time for big moves. I thought that a month ago and it didn't pay off. although in a few months, everyone will be saying, "if only I could have known". but those people will never know. either you get it or you don't.   

I'm still a real estate person.  Something you can physically touch and lots of write offs.  Stocks are just numbers on paper as is all money.  Work those two investments and keep your personal debt low and you'll do alright is how I think.
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« Reply #973 on: October 29, 2020, 02:31:45 PM »

Can't wait for things to get back/closer to "normal".... This bizarro world we've been living in for the last few years is just odd...




/jarmo
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« Reply #974 on: October 29, 2020, 03:12:17 PM »

I don't know about the rest of you guys but part of me can't wait for this election to end, i am over all the political texts i am getting. They don't even know my name! They keep calling me Preston.  Huh

 hihi Yes please!  For all the comments on Trump's behavior, the rest of them aren't doing much better.  The commercials are the worst.  Out of context, fact check that and the nastiness in the voices are way out there.  If this were a football game the penalties would outnumber the score.  It's just ugly.  I hope the kids aren't watching.
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The wheel is turning and you can't slow down
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« Reply #975 on: October 29, 2020, 04:08:19 PM »

I don't know about the rest of you guys but part of me can't wait for this election to end, i am over all the political texts i am getting. They don't even know my name! They keep calling me Preston.  Huh

 hihi Yes please!  For all the comments on Trump's behavior, the rest of them aren't doing much better.  The commercials are the worst.  Out of context, fact check that and the nastiness in the voices are way out there.  If this were a football game the penalties would outnumber the score.  It's just ugly.  I hope the kids aren't watching.
The commercials are awful, some worse then others and they're constant. My uncle watches t he local fox 4 news in the morning and each commercial break every other commercial is political.
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« Reply #976 on: October 29, 2020, 04:11:57 PM »

Can't wait for things to get back/closer to "normal".... This bizarro world we've been living in for the last few years is just odd...




/jarmo


I've almost forgot what normal feels like after these 4 chaotic years. I can only imagine what people in your country must think of us for electing this doofus.
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jarmo
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« Reply #977 on: October 29, 2020, 06:50:35 PM »

I've almost forgot what normal feels like after these 4 chaotic years. I can only imagine what people in your country must think of us for electing this doofus.


The reality is that every country has every kind of person.

So not everyone here see him as stupid, or bad. But I'd say a lot of normal people as well as most politicians,or people who have been in politics, don't see him as the greatest president ever...

That just comes down to things like expectations of how a president should act, and having a certain kind of decency towards others who don't necessarily share your point of view.
 

But this kind of leader isn't exclusive to the US, unfortunately. There are multiple examples of right wing populists who don't have a clue about how to lead a nation who are in fact leaders in various nations at this moment. And many of them are failing. In most things except lining the pockets of the rich elites.... As usual, the average normal working person pays the price for falling for the false promises made by self proclaimed smart miracle workers who all sound more like used car salesmen.... Promising solutions to problems that only exist in their heads because it's down to ideology and egos.

You can't make this stuff up. The people claiming to work to get rid off corruption are usually not as innocent as they portray. Once they're out of the office, the truth will come out.


I'm old enough to remember how bad people thought W Bush was..... Look at where we are now. The USA isn't the world leader or super power they were at that time. How to handle a pandemic? Don't look at the USA. How to have a democratic election? Don't look at the USA for a shining example.... How to be the leader in creating a better world for the next generations? Well, the USA has little interest in that at the moment.

Unfortunate because the country has a lot of potential....



/jarmo
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« Reply #978 on: October 29, 2020, 08:35:31 PM »

I've almost forgot what normal feels like after these 4 chaotic years. I can only imagine what people in your country must think of us for electing this doofus.


The reality is that every country has every kind of person.

So not everyone here see him as stupid, or bad. But I'd say a lot of normal people as well as most politicians,or people who have been in politics, don't see him as the greatest president ever...

That just comes down to things like expectations of how a president should act, and having a certain kind of decency towards others who don't necessarily share your point of view.
 

But this kind of leader isn't exclusive to the US, unfortunately. There are multiple examples of right wing populists who don't have a clue about how to lead a nation who are in fact leaders in various nations at this moment. And many of them are failing. In most things except lining the pockets of the rich elites.... As usual, the average normal working person pays the price for falling for the false promises made by self proclaimed smart miracle workers who all sound more like used car salesmen.... Promising solutions to problems that only exist in their heads because it's down to ideology and egos.

You can't make this stuff up. The people claiming to work to get rid off corruption are usually not as innocent as they portray. Once they're out of the office, the truth will come out.


I'm old enough to remember how bad people thought W Bush was..... Look at where we are now. The USA isn't the world leader or super power they were at that time. How to handle a pandemic? Don't look at the USA. How to have a democratic election? Don't look at the USA for a shining example.... How to be the leader in creating a better world for the next generations? Well, the USA has little interest in that at the moment.

Unfortunate because the country has a lot of potential....



/jarmo


by back to normal do you mean back to starting unnecessary wars in Libya and dropping bombs on innocent people around the world on an almost daily basis?

lifelong politicians who are indebted to lobbyists and foreign leaders?
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« Reply #979 on: October 29, 2020, 09:02:29 PM »

You literally said Biden has it in the bag, then in the next sentence said it would be a tie. That is contradictory no matter how you slice it

The polling was accurate within the margin of error no matter how you try to spin it otherwise. https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/election-2020/six-days-to-go-how-does-election-polling-compare-to-2016

Comparing 2020 to 2016

The landscape of the race six days out is somewhat similar to the 2016 race.

One key difference is Clintonís lead in national polls was generally smaller than Bidenís lead. The final CNN poll, which was released two weeks before the election, gave Clinton a 5% edge. The final CNBC poll gave Clinton a lead of 9%. But other reputable polls, such as the CBS News Poll, were more narrow. The CBS News poll gave Clinton just a 3% edge. Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2%.

Battleground state polls generally were off by a margin of 5%, which is normal in a presidential election. What made things abnormal was those polling errors were just enough to flip the election for Trump in a number of states.

In Michigan, a Detroit Free Press poll released a week before the election showed Clinton up by 4 percent. She ended up losing by .2 percent.

In Pennsylvania, polls generally gave Clinton a modest lead. Her lead in the final CNN poll was 5 percent a week before the election. She ended up losing by 1 percent.

Wisconsin was another state Trump won by about .5%. He trailed Clinton in the Marquette poll by 6% in the final days before the election. Compared to 2016, his deficit in the Marquette poll is slimmer in 2016 than it is currently.

On the flip side, polling in Nevada did not suggest a Clinton win. A CNN poll had Trump up 51-46 just days before the election. Clinton won the state by 2%.

it was not the next sentence. take a closer look at my post.

also, most people would be able to understand that based on the first part of the sentence where I reference how crazy a year 2020 has been, I was stating this as a joke. a hypothetical that would be fitting for this year. I know that went over your head - not saying because you lack intelligence - just went over your head this time.

here's an article for you...

What's Changed Since Polls Were Wrong About 2016's Presidential Election

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/28/928556186/whats-changed-since-polls-were-wrong-about-2016s-presidential-election

but keep ignoring reality.

Humor does not always translate well via text on a screen.  hihi

So you are saying you firmly believe Biden will be president elect?

Polls certainly can be wrong but there are clear differences this time. We will know next week hopefully. I don't believe it will be on election night though.

Yes, I think this time is different. There are not obvious "issues" with the polls, and the things that were in Trump's favor last time are not in play this time; for example, he's not facing a despicable human being this time.

well, at least I don't THINK he is. I mean Biden is a lifelong politician so obviously he's a corrupt scum bag, but he's generally viewed favorably, unlike Hillary. so I firmly believe Biden will win. I have bet with a friend for dinner for 4 - probably a $300 dinner, so essentially a $150 bet.

but the DOJ confirmed the FBI opened a criminal investigation into Hunter Biden and his associates back in 2019. The investigation is ongoing.

so it makes you wonder....the Dems and the press pushed the Russia BS for years based on faulty evidence. there is now actual evidence out there that shows corruption on behalf of Joe Biden and his son. of course, the media ignores it and big tech is controlling what info we even have access to.

But the whole impeachment thing....did Trump get too close to a Biden criminal empire? was that all a hoax as well to protect their candidate?

shouldn't the press at least do their job and investigate whatever evidence there may or may not be? if it is BS, tell us. Various dems and the press said this was Russian disinformation. what was that based on??

Hunter is under criminal investigation. shouldn't the press follow-up on that? After all, does anyone really think that Hunter is raking in millions from foreign leaders for any of his knowledge or expertise? Of course not, it's all to get access to his dad.   

there is now evidence that a candidate for president of the US is severely compromised.
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