2008 Congressional Election Thread

[GeorgeSteele]

The hooker part doesn't bother me.? 

Yeah, me neither.  I was young and they needed the money.

[Booker Floyd]

David Vitter replaced Representative Bob Livingston after Livingston stepped down during an extramarital affair scandal.  He issued this statement:

?I think Livingston?s stepping down makes a very powerful argument that Clinton should resign as well and move beyond this mess,? he said. [Atlanta Journal and Constitution, 12/20/98]

[Booker Floyd]

The Line: Don't Forget Congress!

We've been receiving some e-mails in The Fix inbox of late chiding us for going all presidential in the last few weeks.

While we make no excuses for covering what is, quite frankly, the most wide open, unpredictable and exciting presidential race in recent American political history, The Fix has been suffering a little congressional race withdrawal of our own.

So, below you'll find updated House and Senate lines. And, you have our word that once the presidential race quiets down (if that ever happens) we'll be back offering Fix readers regular updates on the state of play in the House, Senate and gubernatorial contests.

As always, the number one ranked race on each line is the most likely seat to change party control. Agree or disagree? Your thoughts are welcome in the comments section.

To the line(s)!

SENATE

Last fall it looked as though Democrats could make a legitimate run at 60 seats in November. That dream is gone but the number of GOP retirements and continued lackluster recruiting by Senate Republicans puts Democrats in position to pick up somewhere between two and five seats. (Just one of the ten seats on this month's line is held by a Democrat.) Since our last Line, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has run his typical brutally efficient campaign, scaring away top Democratic challengers and keeping himself off this month's Line. The resignation of Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and the controversy over when the special election will be held to replace him puts his seat on the Line this month.

10. Mississippi (OPEN Republican-held seat; Lott resigned)
9. Alaska (Republican Sen. Ted Stevens running for re-election)
8. Oregon (Republican Sen. Gordon Smith running for re-election)
7. Maine (Republican Sen. Susan Collins running for re-election)
6. Minnesota (Republican Sen. Norm Coleman running for re-election)
5. Colorado (OPEN Republican-held seat; Sen. Wayne Allard retiring)
4. Louisiana (Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu running for re-election)
3. New Hampshire (Republican Sen. John Sununu running for re-election)
2. New Mexico (OPEN Republican-held seat; Sen. Pete Domenici retiring)
1. Virginia (OPEN Republican-held seat; Sen. John Warner retiring)

HOUSE

The last month or so has provided mixed results for House Republicans. On one hand, retirements continue to afflict the party -- Rep. Richard Baker (R-La.) is the latest example. On the other hand some good news is trickling in -- most notably Rep. Bill Young's (R-Fla.) decision to run for re-election and Rep. John Doolittle's (R-Calif.) decision not to run. It still looks like an uphill journey for Republicans to pick up House seats; just one of the ten seats on this month's Line is currently held by a Democrat.

10. Louisiana's 6th district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Baker resigning)
9. California's 11th district (Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney running for re-election)
8. Minnesota's 3rd district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Rep. Jim Ramstad retiring)
7. New Mexico's 1st district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Rep. Heather Wilson running for Senate)
6. Ohio's 15th district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Rep. Deborah Pryce retiring)
5. New Jersey's 7th district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Rep. Mike Ferguson retiring)
4. Illinois' 11th district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Rep. Jerry Weller retiring)
3. Arizona's 1st district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Rep. Rick Renzi retiring)
2. New Jersey's 3rd district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Rep. Jim Saxton retiring)
1. Ohio's 16th district (OPEN Republican-held seat; Rep. Ralph Regula retiring)

By Chris Cillizza |  January 1

[freedom78]

Since a number of Hillary Clinton advocates on the web are claiming that Obama won't be able to accomplish anything because the GOP will block them, I thought this as good a time as any to revisit the Congressional elections...particularly those in the Senate, where a filibuster is possible.  That is to say, assuming the Dems can maintain a majority in both houses, the Senate is where the potential trouble lies for a future Democratic President. 

So...if either Clinton or Obama is elected President, here's where things will stand:

Definite Seats
DEMS: 37
REPS: 28
IND: 2

These numbers assume that a Democrat would be appointed to fill Obama/Clinton's seat.  I don't think Bernie Sanders (I) would filibuster against the Democratic caucus, but I could see Lieberman doing so on foreign policy issues.

So, that means that there are 12 Democratic and 21 Republican seats up for election. 

But, as Booker mentioned, there are a couple of retirements for the GOP, killing any incumbent advantage in New Mexico and Colorado. 

In a year in which Democratic turnout is way up, it looks as though the Dems have a good chance to pick up some seats, perhaps three or more, which could give them a solid majority, with the two independent Senators,  of 54+. 

Of course, that's still not 60, but the closer they get to that most magic of Senate numbers, the better for them. 

[freedom78]

Took me a while to dig these up, but here are some poll numbers for some of the key Senate races:

Virginia (Open GOP seat; Incumbent retiring):

Mark Warner (D): 57%
Jim Gilmore (R): 37%
---How'd you like to be Gilmore and lose two elections in the same season?

Minnesota (Incumbent GOP seat)

Al Franken (D): 49%
Norm Coleman (R): 46%

Colorado (Open GOP seat; Incumbent retiring)

Bob Schaffer (R): 44%
Mark Udall (D): 43%

New Hampshire (Incumbent GOP seat)

Jeane Shaheen (D): 49%
John Sununu (R): 41%

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/

That's four GOP seats in serious risk, and if the Dem vote correlates at all with the primary turnout, they'll pick up all these seats, I'm betting.

If the New Mexico race is anything like these, it could be a +5 senate election for the Dems.  That would put their working majority, with both independents, at 56 seats. 

[TAP]

Looks like the Dems might take Hastert's old district:

http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconnews/index.html

U.S. House - District 14 - Special General
Illinois - 423 of 568 Precincts Reporting - 74%
   Name    Party    Votes    Vote %
   Foster , Bill    Dem    40,395    53%
   Oberweis , Jim    GOP    35,895    47%

[freedom78]

Looks like the Dems might take Hastert's old district:

http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconnews/index.html

U.S. House - District 14 - Special General
Illinois - 423 of 568 Precincts Reporting - 74%
   Name    Party    Votes    Vote %
   Foster , Bill    Dem    40,395    53%
   Oberweis , Jim    GOP    35,895    47%

Not to get off track, but that's likely another Superdelegate for Obama.  But even if it's not, it's a big win for Dems.

[TAP]

I guess Hastert was my congressman for 5 years and I never knew, I feel so dirty.   

[TAP]

Endorsing a loser 

[The Dog]

Hastert is OUT

Dems are IN

 

[Booker Floyd]

Not to get off track, but that's likely another Superdelegate for Obama.  But even if it's not, it's a big win for Dems.

It is.  Fosters victory is already being used as an example of Obamas ability to help the downticket.

[freedom78]

Hastert is OUT

Dems are IN

 

Not to look too far ahead, but this was a GOP safe district...this win for a Dem suggests good things for November.

[The Dog]

Hastert is OUT

Dems are IN

 

Not to look too far ahead, but this was a GOP safe district...this win for a Dem suggests good things for November.

absolutely.  I don't see how they can lose.  Then again I said that in 00 and 04 too 

[freedom78]

Mark Pryor Uncontested For Second Term In U.S. Senate

U.S. Senator Mark Pryor apparently will run for a second term uncontested by a Republican. Tom Formicola, who lost a bid for a Congressional seat in 2006, decided not to run against Pryor after thinking about it further over the weekend and discussing it with his family. Republican Party Chairman Dennis Milligan says the party does not plan to have a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat.

Filing for an elective office in Arkansas ends Monday. None of Arkansas' Congressional delegates have drawn opponents.

Pryor won in 2002 by beating Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. But just in case he had a re-election fight, he has raised more than $4 million for a campaign. The sum rivals the $4.22 million he raised for his 2002 campaign.

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How the hell can the GOP not contest a blue Senate seat in a red state?  They have so many seats to hold this fall, and this is one that could really suck up DNC resources.