Donald Trump & 2016 Election

[Dr. Blutarsky]

And it looks like we've got a competitive race again now that Trump is on message for a whole week. But if he reverts to the idiotic bluster and 4th grade behavior its over I think. Maybe the staff shakeup did some good for him. Think the only reason he has been able to recover from his past comments is that he is running against Hillary who brings a lot of negatives herself.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Clinton 43%
Trump 45%

Of course, these polls ignore 3rd party candidates.......

Maybe if the media would give other candidates more coverage people would take more of an interest in them as viable alternatives.

I question the accuracy of this one. All polls i've been seeing Hillary has an ok lead. Not a great insurmountable lead but a lead and in key swing states. I haven't seen any since trump's campaign shakeup. That happened at the end of the week though, so i assume it'll be during the week before we start seeing more polls to get a real idea if it i helped at all.

This was a daily poll. Yes. time will tell as far as the trend goes, but its been a good month since Ive seen Trump lead Hillary in any poll at all.

[tim_m]

And it looks like we've got a competitive race again now that Trump is on message for a whole week. But if he reverts to the idiotic bluster and 4th grade behavior its over I think. Maybe the staff shakeup did some good for him. Think the only reason he has been able to recover from his past comments is that he is running against Hillary who brings a lot of negatives herself.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Clinton 43%
Trump 45%

Of course, these polls ignore 3rd party candidates.......

Maybe if the media would give other candidates more coverage people would take more of an interest in them as viable alternatives.

I question the accuracy of this one. All polls i've been seeing Hillary has an ok lead. Not a great insurmountable lead but a lead and in key swing states. I haven't seen any since trump's campaign shakeup. That happened at the end of the week though, so i assume it'll be during the week before we start seeing more polls to get a real idea if it i helped at all.

This was a daily poll. Yes. time will tell as far as the trend goes, but its been a good month since Ive seen Trump lead Hillary in any poll at all.

I'd be shocked if he isn't back to acting like a toddler in a week or less.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

And it looks like we've got a competitive race again now that Trump is on message for a whole week. But if he reverts to the idiotic bluster and 4th grade behavior its over I think. Maybe the staff shakeup did some good for him. Think the only reason he has been able to recover from his past comments is that he is running against Hillary who brings a lot of negatives herself.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Clinton 43%
Trump 45%

Of course, these polls ignore 3rd party candidates.......

Maybe if the media would give other candidates more coverage people would take more of an interest in them as viable alternatives.

I question the accuracy of this one. All polls i've been seeing Hillary has an ok lead. Not a great insurmountable lead but a lead and in key swing states. I haven't seen any since trump's campaign shakeup. That happened at the end of the week though, so i assume it'll be during the week before we start seeing more polls to get a real idea if it i helped at all.

This was a daily poll. Yes. time will tell as far as the trend goes, but its been a good month since Ive seen Trump lead Hillary in any poll at all.

I'd be shocked if he isn't back to acting like a toddler in a week or less.

I wouldn't bet against you on that one. The guy shoots himself in the foot constantly.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

On the subject of the other stellar candidate....

Colin Powell Says Hillary Clinton's 'People Have Been Trying to Pin' Email Scandal on Him



By Sara Nathan and Jeff Nelson

08/21/2016 AT 09:00 PM EDT
Hillary Clinton's email scandal continues.

On Friday, the New York Times reported that Clinton told FBI officials former Secretary of State Colin Powell had advised her to use a personal email account while she held the Secretary of State office herself.

"Her people have been trying to pin it on me," Powell, 79, told PEOPLE Saturday night at the Apollo in the Hamptons 2016 Night of Legends f?te in East Hampton, New York.

"The truth is, she was using [the private email server] for a year before I sent her a memo telling her what I did," Powell added.



Why does the former diplomat believe this to be the case?

"Why do you think?" he said. "It doesn't bother me. But it's okay; I'm free."

The email scandal has dogged presidential hopeful Clinton for more than a year. But federal officials decided not to pursue criminal charges after a three-and-a-half-hour interview, which was when the Democratic nominee disclosed her alleged conversation with Powell.

The reported conversation was first brought to light in journalist Joe Conason's upcoming Bill Clinton biography, Man of the World: The Further Endeavors of Bill Clinton, in which the writer details a dinner party held by Clinton and attended by Powell, Madeleine Albright, Henry Kissinger and Condoleeza Rice.

"Toward the end of the evening, over dessert, Albright asked all of the former secretaries to offer one salient bit of counsel to the nation's next top diplomat," Conason wrote. "Powell told her to user her own email, as he had done, except for classified communications, which he had sent and received via a State Department computer ... [Powell] confirmed a decision she had made months earlier ? to keep her personal account and use it for most messages."

Powell's office later released a statement to NBC News, saying he "has no recollection of the dinner conversation." However, "He did write former Secretary Clinton an email memo describing his use of his personal AOL email account for unclassified messages and how it vastly improved communications within the State Department."

http://www.people.com/article/colin-powell-hillary-clinton-pinning-email-scandal-on-him

[tim_m]

And it looks like we've got a competitive race again now that Trump is on message for a whole week. But if he reverts to the idiotic bluster and 4th grade behavior its over I think. Maybe the staff shakeup did some good for him. Think the only reason he has been able to recover from his past comments is that he is running against Hillary who brings a lot of negatives herself.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Clinton 43%
Trump 45%

Of course, these polls ignore 3rd party candidates.......

Maybe if the media would give other candidates more coverage people would take more of an interest in them as viable alternatives.

I question the accuracy of this one. All polls i've been seeing Hillary has an ok lead. Not a great insurmountable lead but a lead and in key swing states. I haven't seen any since trump's campaign shakeup. That happened at the end of the week though, so i assume it'll be during the week before we start seeing more polls to get a real idea if it i helped at all.

This was a daily poll. Yes. time will tell as far as the trend goes, but its been a good month since Ive seen Trump lead Hillary in any poll at all.

I'd be shocked if he isn't back to acting like a toddler in a week or less.

I wouldn't bet against you on that one. The guy shoots himself in the foot constantly.

I think only a Trump supporter would take that bet.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

 

[tim_m]

Ok that's funny.

[pilferk]

And it looks like we've got a competitive race again now that Trump is on message for a whole week. But if he reverts to the idiotic bluster and 4th grade behavior its over I think. Maybe the staff shakeup did some good for him. Think the only reason he has been able to recover from his past comments is that he is running against Hillary who brings a lot of negatives herself.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Clinton 43%
Trump 45%

Of course, these polls ignore 3rd party candidates.......

Maybe if the media would give other candidates more coverage people would take more of an interest in them as viable alternatives.

The LA times poll has, consistently, been an outlier in terms of distance.  You can check it's history via realclearpolitics.

It has consistently showed an approx one point race in Clintons favor (even during Trumps worst days) while other polls were showing 4 to 6 point spreads.  It seems to overvalue Republican votes...or most other reputable polls are undervaluing them.  They are either the only light in the darkness (ok, there's 2 or 3 of them)...or are VERY wrong in their poll results.

I wouldn't take that poll to mean anything unless you see other polls likewise narrowing.  So far, the RCP average is sticking right around Clinton +5-ish (4 week average is about +4.5, current average is about +5.5).  The average shown any budge over the last week or so (since the shake up).  We'll see where we are next week (now that the Olympics are over...you'll probably see more focus on the race, especially post holiday).

[pilferk]

I question the accuracy of this one. All polls i've been seeing Hillary has an ok lead. Not a great insurmountable lead but a lead and in key swing states. I haven't seen any since trump's campaign shakeup. That happened at the end of the week though, so i assume it'll be during the week before we start seeing more polls to get a real idea if it i helped at all.

The state polls (which, lets face it, are far more important than the popular vote poll anyway) show Trump having a pretty tough path to 270, and Hillary with polls WELL outside the margin of errors that put her at somewhere between 250 and 270 RIGHT NOW.  And VERY close races in states that have not usually been.  That means Repubs are going to have to spend money in places they don't normally have to, and Dems are NOT going to have to spend in places like Virgina, Colorado, and Pennsylvania where Clinton is looking at close to, or over, double digit leads.  That's bad news for Trump.

[pilferk]

This was a daily poll. Yes. time will tell as far as the trend goes, but its been a good month since Ive seen Trump lead Hillary in any poll at all.

He led Hillary in that very poll about 2 weeks ago. In addition, same poll, Hillary has, for the most part, only been a point ahead, when she's shown to lead at all.  There was exactly 5 days (Aug 12 - 17) where here lead went from 1 to 4 and back to 1. Then over the past 5 it's trended to Trump +1.  Every other day since July 1, Trump has been ahead (by as many as 8 points), or Hillary has had an approx 1pt lead, in that poll.

That's WELL outside what other polls have shown.

Edit: Just ran a quick script:

LA times 30 day average is Trump +1 (+.88 actually).  RCP average is Clinton +4.5.

Since July 11th, LA times average is Trump +1.12, with a range of -4.7 to +7.3.  Clinton has led in that poll for a total of 17 of the 43 days.

I think we can safely call it an outlier. Right or wrong, it plots well outside most other poll averages.

[pilferk]

I'm in CT.  Clinton is polling about 8 points ahead and will likely widen that gap going into November, unless something crazy happens.

Unless I'm FORCED to vote for her because the polls here narrow and I have to put in a vote for "Anyone but Trump"....

I'm seriously considering a write in vote for Cthulhu or Godzilla.  Might be a game day decision.

Stein is...not a presidential candidate.  I've read some of her platform stuff (and her book) and...sorry...I can't, in good faith, vote for her.  She's way too idealistic, naive, and her world view is myopic, to say the least.  Too many unicorns and rainbows, not enough realism.  It would be nice if she tempered some of her idealism into realism, but I just don't see her doing that.  She's a liberal in the ways that gets liberals laughed at, which is unfortunate.

Gary Johnson....and I love me some libertarians, don't get me wrong...I just can't vote for him, either.  He's less libertarian, and more anarchist. He's less presidential candidate, more dude bro.  And while I think a dose of anarchy might be a good thing, short term, putting an anarchist at the helm of our country would be disastrous. And the frat boy dude bro thing, real or memorexed to make him more relatable to young males, I find really annoying.  If I knew for sure it was just his on stage gimmick, I might pay him a little more consideration.  But his platform, again, would be unworkable...and totally unrealistic to enact unless he manages to replace congress with similar anarchist dude bros.  If you think we have stagnation now.....ye gods, a Johnson presidency would make this last 4 to 6 years looks like the most productive years since the New Deal.

In short, not ONE of the presidential candidates, to me, is worth my vote.

It's a sad, sad occasion.  I've voted for Indies before (Nader in '04) but can't even find one of those this year. Ughhh......

So...Cthulhu or Godzilla....

[tim_m]

Well so much for the "new" Trump. He started his day off by attacking morning joe on MSNBC.

[tim_m]

presidentalpolls.com where i get my polls just cited the latimes poll.

[pilferk]

presidentalpolls.com where i get my polls just cited the latimes poll.

realclearpolitics factors it in, too. Its still an outlier.

[pilferk]

Well so much for the "new" Trump. He started his day off by attacking morning joe on MSNBC.

But but but..his new campaign manager says he doest hurl personal insults??

And joe is a republican. A somewhat moderate republican, but a repub all the same.

[tim_m]

I'm in CT.  Clinton is polling about 8 points ahead and will likely widen that gap going into November, unless something crazy happens.

Unless I'm FORCED to vote for her because the polls here narrow and I have to put in a vote for "Anyone but Trump"....

I'm seriously considering a write in vote for Cthulhu or Godzilla.  Might be a game day decision.

Stein is...not a presidential candidate.  I've read some of her platform stuff (and her book) and...sorry...I can't, in good faith, vote for her.  She's way too idealistic, naive, and her world view is myopic, to say the least.  Too many unicorns and rainbows, not enough realism.  It would be nice if she tempered some of her idealism into realism, but I just don't see her doing that.  She's a liberal in the ways that gets liberals laughed at, which is unfortunate.

Gary Johnson....and I love me some libertarians, don't get me wrong...I just can't vote for him, either.  He's less libertarian, and more anarchist. He's less presidential candidate, more dude bro.  And while I think a dose of anarchy might be a good thing, short term, putting an anarchist at the helm of our country would be disastrous. And the frat boy dude bro thing, real or memorexed to make him more relatable to young males, I find really annoying.  If I knew for sure it was just his on stage gimmick, I might pay him a little more consideration.  But his platform, again, would be unworkable...and totally unrealistic to enact unless he manages to replace congress with similar anarchist dude bros.  If you think we have stagnation now.....ye gods, a Johnson presidency would make this last 4 to 6 years looks like the most productive years since the New Deal.

In short, not ONE of the presidential candidates, to me, is worth my vote.

It's a sad, sad occasion.  I've voted for Indies before (Nader in '04) but can't even find one of those this year. Ughhh......

So...Cthulhu or Godzilla....

I'm basically in the same boat. I don't like Clinton but if voting for her means stopping Trump i'll do it. Here it probably won't matter being a deeply red state.

[Dr. Blutarsky]

Poll: Jill Stein tied with Harambe, trailing Deez Nutz in Texas.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/291759-poll-jill-stein-tied-with-harambe-trailing-deez-nutz-in-texas

[tim_m]

Well so much for the "new" Trump. He started his day off by attacking morning joe on MSNBC.

But but but..his new campaign manager says he doest hurl personal insults??

And joe is a republican. A somewhat moderate republican, but a repub all the same.

Pigs might grow wings and fly too

[tim_m]

Poll: Jill Stein tied with Harambe, trailing Deez Nutz in Texas.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/291759-poll-jill-stein-tied-with-harambe-trailing-deez-nutz-in-texas

And we wonder why things are so fucked up in this country.

[tim_m]

New poll shows Trump down 16 points in Virginia. He's apparently made more racist comments too. This time calling African american communities war zones. While trying to get blacks to vote for him telling them they have nothing to lose then came the blunder.